Trends 2012
Assuming Stephan Colbert’s assumption that “this country loves charts and graphs”, allow me to make your day. (Click on the text highlighted in blue!!!) OK, I hope you enjoyed that video that has nothing to do with real estate. Now back to business. Please see below.
The line graph is NTREIS’ (North Texas Real Estate Information System) total dollar volume of sales since 2007. Obviously, 2012 has picked itself up off a three year bottom, with January of 2012 having a higher dollar volume of sales than that of 2011, 2010, and 2009.
And the NTREIS Activity Report. What tale does this chart tell? The most striking observation is the “# of Sales” and “% Change vs. Prior Year” data (first two columns). An astounding 27 out of 32 areas in DFW have seen a substantial increase in the number of sales when comparing January of 2012 to January of 2011. And what do I mean when I write “substantial”? How about the “# of Sales” increasing by an average of 18% across the four counties.
But perhaps the most interesting conclusions come when one synthesizes the aforementioned data, “# of Sales”, “% Change vs. Prior Year” with the third and fourth columns, “Average Sale Price” and “% Change vs. Prior Year”. An averaging of all the area’s “% Change vs. Prior Year” of average sale prices comes out to -1.5%.
What is the market saying when there is a substantial increase in the number of sales with a very modest depreciation in sale prices? It’s proving what I and others have claimed for several months now. The market has finished flatlining and has begun its ascent. Price follows on the heels of demand, and demand is climbing. Prices will follow.
Decrease in Sales + Appreciation = Market Finishing its Peak
Decrease in Sales + Depreciation = All Hell Breaking Loose
Increase in Sales + Depreciation = Market Finishing its Valley
Increase in Sales + Appreciation = Market in the Middle of Ascent
The very best time to buy is when market prices are at their lowest. In my opinion, those who purchase now stand to gain the most out of their real estate investment as compared to purchasing two or three years down the road.
-David Stapp
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